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Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.
Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year's Eve that the nation's economy had grown "more resilient and dynamic this year." Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country's heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That's a problem, given China's real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation's GDP. "This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids," Bass said, referring to China's default-ridden property market. The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China's economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post.
Persons: Eswar Prasad, Mohamed El, Xi Jinping, there's, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Kristalina Georgieva, Hayman, Hayman Capital Kyle Bass, Bass, isn't Organizations: Future Publishing, CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Allianz, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, New York Times, Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Dallas, Hayman Capital, of International Finance Locations: Jiangsu, China, Nikkei Asia, U.S, Europe, tatters, Davos, Beijing
Billionaire investor Bill Gross warned the bond market is headed for a record third year of losses. "I think that bonds are headed for a third straight year of losses and that portfolios should own more pipeline MLPs," Gross said. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyAdvertisementAdvertisementBillionaire investor Bill Gross warned of more pain for bond investors as US fixed-income assets head for an unprecedented three-year slump. AdvertisementAdvertisementGovernment bond yields surged Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, and signaled borrowing costs will remain higher for longer. According to Gross, "the 10 year Treasury is already priced for a 2% inflationary world."
Persons: Bill Gross, Gross Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Ukraine's president met with billionaire investors Ken Griffin and Bill Ackman to discuss the future of the country's economy. The meeting, hosted by JPMorgan, focused on the scope for private-sector funding to help rebuild Ukraine's economy. Zelenskyy introduced the proposal at the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the United Nations in New York, in a meeting organised by JPMorgan. Zelenskyy had met with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Wednesday, the outlet reported. AdvertisementAdvertisementUkraine's economy has been battered by a slew of problems - including high inflation and a persistent trade deficit - following Russia's invasion of the nation.
Persons: Ken Griffin, Bill Ackman, Eric Schmidt, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Citadel's Griffin, Pershing Square's, Philipp Hildebrand, Larry Fink Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Fox News, United Nations, Fox, BlackRock Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, New York, Russia
Expect another rate increase by the Fed at its next meeting due to a "problematic" surge in oil prices, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach said. "I think the probability of rate hikes is higher than what I thought before this oil spike happened," Gundlach said. Oil prices have climbed past $90 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia slashed production. "So I think the chance of a rate hike is higher because these oil prices are going to be a real problem," Gundlach said. Surging oil prices now threaten to spark a resurgence of US inflation, which the Fed has tried so hard to quell.
Persons: Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal, CNBC, Brent, US West Texas Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Wall, Silicon
Indonesia appears to be the latest country to jump on the de-dollarization bandwagon. The island nation has launched a National Task Force to promote local-currency transactions. The move is expected to help make the rupiah more stable, and support local financial markets, Bank Indonesia said. The island nation has announced it's formed a National Task Force to widen the use of local currency transactions (LCT) with partner countries, according to Indonesia's central bank. While some experts perceive de-dollarization efforts as a threat to the greenback, others have dismissed the movement as a nothingburger.
Persons: it's, Perry Warjiyo, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Force, Bank, Service, Bank Indonesia Locations: Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Wall, Silicon, China, Russia, India, dollarization, Beijing, New Delhi, Zimbabwe
Russia's trade with the US has hit a 30-year low amid Western economic sanctions against Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia's trade with China is on track to hit an all-time high of more than $200 billion. The Eurasian nation's trade with the US plunged to a three-decade low in July, while its commerce with China is on track to hit an all-time high of more than $200 billion this year. Russia's trade with China is set to surpass the $200 billion milestone this year, according to the minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov, per a local Russian news outlet. However, Russia's oil and gas trade now appears to be making something of a comeback after a year of pain, thanks to a rally in global oil prices.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Maxim Reshetnikov, Reshetnikov Organizations: Moscow, Moscow . Commerce, Service, United States Census Bureau, Motors, Ford, Mercedes, Benz, RBC Locations: Moscow ., China, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Russian
Olive oil is the latest commodity to see prices spike to record highs. The average price in August was 130% higher than a year earlier, surpassing levels not seen since 1996. "Consumer and cultural preferences for olive oil make it difficult to substitute despite plentiful supplies of other vegetable oils," the USDA said. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, global olive oil prices spiked to $8,900 a ton in September as extremely dry weather in the Mediterranean raised the risk of supply disruptions. "While prices have moderated consumption somewhat, consumer and cultural preferences for olive oil make it difficult to substitute despite plentiful supplies of other vegetable oils," it added.
Organizations: Service, United States Department of Agriculture, EU Locations: Olive, Wall, Silicon
The Fed may cut rates as soon as year-end as a recession hits the US economy, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management's CIO. Such a move would be similar to how the Fed dropped its "transitory" call on inflation and started raising rates, he said. "They're going to tell us that they're going to keep rates higher for longer until inflation is at their target. "I think this time for them to cut rates, they're going to have to see unemployment go up. So it's possible that they may actually tip the economy into recession first before they start cutting rates, which would be something new for them.
Persons: we'll, Bob Michele, Michele, J.P, Morgan Asset's Michele Organizations: Morgan, Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon
Investors would have made more money buying the S&P 500 than following Michael Burry's stock-market warnings, said Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning. "Simply buying the S&P 500 instead of following Michael Burry's stock market warnings would have made an investor money each time with an average 6-month annualized gain of 34%. He was referring to gains delivered by the benchmark index in the periods that immediately followed a selection of Burry's tweets between 2019 and 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500 share index has climbed more than 16% so far in 2023, thanks in no small part to investor excitement over the rise of artificial-intelligence technologies. He's warned of an economic downturn since the first half of 2022, leading him to place a bet with a notional value of $1.6 billion against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 last quarter.
Persons: Michael Burry's, Charlie Bilello, Burry, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Burry hasn't, He's Organizations: Creative Planning, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she's "feeling very good" about chances of a US soft landing. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, per Bloomberg. Yellen joins Paul Krugman and Larry Summers in suggesting the US will avoid a recession. "I am feeling very good about that prediction," Yellen said on her way home from the G20 summit held in New Delhi, per Bloomberg. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, referring to hopes of a soft landing.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, It's, Paul Krugman —, , David Rosenberg, Leon Cooperman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, New Delhi
The Fed has curbed inflation without causing a recession, Goldman Sachs' chief US economist said. The Fed could make its first cut to interest rates by the second quarter of 2024, he said. In a "Goldman Sachs Exchanges" podcast episode, David Mericle shared his views on the US economy, inflation, and what the Fed's likely to do next. "I think we're in a situation where, with a lag, we should expect inflation to largely normalize," Mericle said. Moreover, Mericle dismissed fears of a looming recession triggered by the central bank's inflation fight.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Dow, we'll Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
US consumers debt isn't as bad as many fear, according to Moody's chief economist. Mark Zandi highlighted that borrowing has moderated since the start of the year as inflation cools. He added that student loan repayments won't cause delinquency rates on other debts to rise. In a post on X, Mark Zandi shared a contrarian view to ongoing chatter about US consumer debt. He added that student loan repayments won't cause delinquency rates on other debt to rise much.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Jeff Gundlach, Zandi Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon
September is historically considered the worst month of the year for stocks, in what is known as the "September Effect." But this year, market experts appear divided over whether US equities will repeat the pattern or defy it. AdvertisementAdvertisementEd Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research"On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. Among things that could go wrong for investors this month, Yardeni highlighted rising oil prices, inflation risks, and China's faltering economy. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg ResearchIn contrast, top economist Rosenberg has long-warned about a looming crash in in stocks.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, it's, Santa Claus, Tom Lee, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, we're, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Yardeni, Investor, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, " Bank of America, Fed, Rosenberg Research Locations: Wall, Silicon, Septembers, Santa
The Fed won't raise interest rates at its next meeting, but could leave the door open for future increases, Mohamed El-Erian said. A stronger-than-expected US economy and rising oil prices are key reasons why further hikes could be on the table. Over the past six quarters, the Fed has hiked interest rates from near-zero levels to upward of 5% in a bid to cool historically high inflation. Further more, higher oil prices are also adding to the Fed's inflation problem, El-Erian noted. Crude oil prices have creeped back up toward $90 a barrel – the highest level in 2023 – as global producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, continue to extend output cuts in order to maintain price stability.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, it's Organizations: Service, Queen's College , Cambridge, CNBC, Allianz, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Cathie Wood's Ark fund and 21Shares are planning America's first spot ether ETF. They filed an SEC application Wednesday as a race to create spot bitcoin ETFs gets underway. The ARK 21Shares ethereum ETF promises a safer way to trade the second-largest cryptocurrency. Many regard that decision as helping pave the way for spot bitcoin ETFs. ARK and 21Shares have also submitted an SEC application for a bitcoin spot ETF.
Persons: bitcoin, There's, ARK's Wood, 21Shares, Ophelia Snyder, Fundstrat Organizations: SEC, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, Fidelity, Investments, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon, BlackRock
Four Big Tech companies - Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta - lost a combined $625 billion in market value this month. Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta have seen a combined $625 billion slump in market value so far this month, Insider calculations show. Apple has led the market-cap declines with a $314 billion slump, followed by Tesla with a $117 billion drop, Microsoft with $114 billion and Meta, $80 billion. AdvertisementAdvertisementOther factors have also weighed on Big Tech stocks in recent months. While Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, and Meta all saw their market capitalizations take a hit, one tech company has notably defied the trend — Nvidia.
Persons: Tesla, Insider's Phil Rosen Organizations: Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Service, Federal Reserve, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon, America
George Soros expects a economic crisis if Donald Trump regains the White House. He told Project Syndicate the US would face both a constitutional, and economic, crisis. The Soros Fund Management founder made his remarks in a Project Syndicate article as the 2024 election cycle gets underway and Trump faces a host of legal battles. AdvertisementAdvertisementThat's not stopped Trump from seeking the Republican nomination for a third time – something that's not sitting well with Soros. But if I am wrong, the US will face a constitutional crisis that is likely to bring on an economic crisis as well," he added.
Persons: George Soros, Donald Trump, It's, Trump's, He's, Trump, that's, Soros Organizations: Syndicate, Federal, Service, Soros Fund Management, Trump, Republican Locations: Wall, Silicon
Former Treasury chief Larry Summers got panned for posting a graph suggesting US inflation could be tracing the same path now as in the 1970s. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said the chart was "problematic on many fronts", adding the 1970s story was different. Market veteran Jim Bianco slammed the post as "chart crime", pointing out scale and calculation inconsistencies. In another post, Summers urged the Federal Reserve to reject suggestions that inflation is "securely under control." "Lots of people beating up on Larry Summers over his chart making recent disinflation look just like the mid-70s disinflation, which reaccelerated.
Persons: Larry Summers, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Jim Bianco, Summers, Bianco Organizations: Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Bianco Research Locations: Wall, Silicon
Ray Dalio heralded India's economic potential following its moon landing on Wednesday. The Chandrayaan-3 landing was "one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendance," he said. "India's successful lunar mission ... is another one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendance," Dalio said in a post on X. The landing meant India became the first country to reach what is thought to be the most water-rich region on the moon – beating Russia, China, and the US. Dalio has hailed India as the next big global investing opportunity previously amid worsening relations between Washington and Beijing.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Deng Xiaoping, Narendra Modi, Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Bridgewater Associates, Indian, Elon Locations: Bridgewater, India, Wall, Silicon, China, Russia, Washington, Beijing
The international drive to end the dollar's dominance has suffered a blow, with the greenback's role in global payments hitting a record high. SWIFT data showed as much as 46% of foreign-exchange payments in July via the messaging system involved the dollar. The jump in dollar usage comes at a time when countries including China and Russia are trying to move away from the greenback. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe jump in dollar-based SWIFT payments raises challenges to the movement to end the greenback's supermacy of global payments and fund transfers. Some market experts however have ridiculed the so-called dedollarization efforts, with one calling the proposed BRICS currency plan "embarrassing."
Persons: SWIFT Organizations: Service, Society, Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, Bloomberg Locations: China, Russia, Wall, Silicon, India, Ukraine
A 40% plunge in Apple's bonds highlights the risks facing banks' debt portfolios, according to Larry McDonald. The markets guru highlighted risks tied to mortgage-backed securities, which are on track for a third annual decline. McDonald seemed to suggest that if the bonds of top-rated companies such as Apple could take such a knock from rising interest rates, declines in the broader debt market could be sizable. MBS securities are closely related to mortgage rates. The US average 30-year mortgage rate surged to a 23-year high of almost 7.5% this month, indicating the scale of price displacement in the mortgage debt market.
Persons: Larry McDonald, Bonds, McDonald Organizations: Service, Fed, Silicon Valley, Apple, MBS, BlackRock's, Atlanta Locations: Wall, Silicon
Argentina should peg the peso to Brazil's real, not the US dollar, to deal with exchange-rate instability and hyperinflation, an economist said. "If Argentina wants a currency peg so badly - Dollarization is after all just a peg - peg to Brazil," Robin Brooks said. "If Argentina wants a currency peg so badly - Dollarization is after all just a peg - peg to Brazil. AdvertisementAdvertisementSome market experts have also backed the idea of Argentina potentially adopting the US currency – economist Steve Hanke recently called for the nation to mothball its central bank and dollarize. Brooks' latest comments come after he suggested earlier that Argentina needs a recession to fix its crashing currency, not dollarization.
Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Javier Milei, Steve Hanke Organizations: Service, Institute of International Finance, South, greenback Locations: Argentina, Brazil, Wall, Silicon, South American
Tesla's value has fallen nearly $200 billion in just over a month. That's dragged Tesla's market cap down almost $200 billion to about $730 billion as of Tuesday's close, per Google Finance. A mix of inflation, higher interest rates, and recession fears have driven Tesla's decline. Higher interest rates tend to be bad news for high-growth stocks, including Tesla, because it eats away at company profitably through expensive borrowing costs. Investors also get deterred from piling into equities as rising interest rates tend to push up returns on bond investments, making them a safer investment compared to stocks.
Persons: Elon Musk's, That's, Jerome Powell's, Tesla, Gordon Johnson, Cathie Wood, Johnson, she'd Organizations: Elon Musk's carmaker, Service, Elon Musk's, Google Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon
Paul Krugman backed calls for the Fed to change its inflation target to 3% – but Mohamed El-Erian says there's little chance of that happening. The two economists voiced their views ahead of Fed chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. "It is very hard for a central bank to change an inflation target when it has been missing it so consistently," El-Erian said. The two economists' comments come ahead of Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech at the 2023 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. "It is very hard for a central bank to change an inflation target when it has been missing it so consistently," El-Erian told CNBC on Monday.
Persons: Paul Krugman, Mohamed El, there's, Jackson, Erian, Jerome Powell's, Jason Furman's, Krugman, it's, Powell Organizations: Service, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon
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